Saturday, May 31, 2008

ADBE Volatility Straddle Update

Implied Volatility of the underlying decreased almost a full point (.93%). The Long Straddles I've purchased are naturally long Vega so this decrease hurts the position. As I have learned the farther-out options have a higher Vega (in this case the Jan 09 has a Vega of 26.62 while the Jun 08 has a Vega of 7.55), and as such the Jan 09 lost more due to the decrease in IV than any of the others. Delta risk and Theta risk partially offset each other thanks to another up move by the underlying stock.

Thoughts
I do not expect IV to continue decreasing, especially as this weekend will move us 2 days closer to the Earnings Announcement. Theta risk will be the biggest hurdle over the weekend as the positions will lose the Theta number * 2. I'm looking for an increase in IV on Monday


I've attached a chart I through together showing the moving values of IV for each position:




Interesting thing to note: Jun has highest IV and also most Volatile IV (not trying to be confusing). The Jan 09 option has the lowest IV and also is the least volatile. While it is good that the Jan 09 option has the highest Vega, it looks like IV may have more trouble increasing for this option than for the Jun 08 option. We will see how this plays out as we approach Earnings.

Lastly, here is the position update:


Cheers.

No comments: